圣安东尼奥住房vs. 经济衰退

Are we on the brink of a Recession?

We have had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and 这是 the definition of a recession.  然而, DC says “don’t mind that because job growth is still strong.“另一方面, 在通胀达到40年来最严重的水平之前，正是这群人说通胀是暂时的.  Creditability a tad shaky?

It is a long-standing pattern: the FED raises interest rates, leading to higher mortgage rates and payments, leading to a slowing in home purchases, leading to a slowing in construction, leading to slower purchases of commodities like 木材, 混凝土, 布线, a / c设备, 等.，导致家具和家电销售放缓，从而导致经济放缓.

Question: If we are experiencing the worst inflation in 40 years, do you think a “soft landing” really lies ahead of us?

Well, we like to be “data dependent” and rely on the science of statistics.  So, here we go with our focus this month on the Multi-family sector in San Antonio.

Commercial Real Estate Values

整体 Commercial Real Estate values are beginning to experience a price decline. According to Green Street Commercial Property Index, which saw a decline of 3.7% in June further explaining that, “The all-property index is down 4.较3月份高点回落9%.” Values have certainly been affected by the surge in interest rates, inflation and the overall uncertainty in the market place.  然而, 房地产通常被认为是抵御通胀的避风港，而公寓是最安全的行业之一.

Will a receding tide swamp all boats?

Rent Growth Above Average

Let’s look at rents, 然后, because 这是 the true source of real estate values. San Antonio’s Year-Over-Year apartment rent growth is 10.3%，低于12%.4% in 2021. This is still one of the fastest increases in the United States, although occupancies have declined just a little from 93.1%降至92.6%, according to Apartmentdata.com.  CoStar数据报告称，多户公寓的租金已从去年创纪录的高点达到峰值. Despite the fact that they have peaked, rent growth is still above average at 9.德克萨斯州的租金增长率为3%，而全国的租金增长率惊人地达到了12%，所以圣安东尼奥也是如此.  展望未来, 穆迪经济预测，到2022年，中国经济增长率将达到强劲但更具可持续性的5%至7%，未来几年将达到3%.  Inflation is the outlier and may push rents even higher, perhaps. Austin has seen year-over-year rent growth of … wait for it … a whopping 20%!  这是疯狂的.

Multifamily Steps in to Fill Housing Gap

Multifamily is filling the housing gap. 过去一年，房价飙升了18%，加上利率的上升，推高了购房者的抵押贷款支付, 因此, making home purchases more difficult.  结果是, it would seem that many families have decided to continue to rent for now, instead of buying new homes.

“US Mortgage applications dropped to lowest level since early 2000,” reports Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending on July 15^th, 2022.  This is the lowest since February 2020, the beginning of the national pandemic. 在经济大衰退之后的10年里，住房建设一直处于低位，现在又进一步下滑, so an inadequate supply of new single-family housing is on the horizon. 在圣安东尼奥, we just rebounded in new home construction to the rate we last saw in 2005, back before the big drop from 2007 to 2011.  Now our city has a larger populous and needs more new homes built to accommodate.

San Antonio’s Economy Doing Well

San Antonio’s Economy is still doing well with an increase of 155,000 jobs since the Pandemic low in April of 2020. The higher income sector of the major labor sectors has added close to 12,000 jobs over the past two years, 这表明我们的博览会城市比过去吸引了更多的科技和金融公司.  这正在改变圣安东尼奥，在那里，政府和医疗保健一直是最大的工作类别.  So, the increase in apartments is being absorbed by higher income move-ins.  Marcus and Millichap reports that, “This correlates with the ongoing A类 vacancy reduction, 随着越来越多的居民有了收入，他们可以租到质量更高、设施齐全的房子.”

新建筑 多户型的

目前，圣安东尼奥多户住宅的新建筑非常强劲.  我们的成长和环境，作为一个可爱的地方居住和抚养家庭继续吸引搬迁的家庭.  San Antonio’s greatest draw is from the RGV, 休斯顿和奥斯汀地区, not just out- of- starters like Californians.  目前, 有超过7个,800 apartment units under construction in 30 separate multi-family communities, 然后 there are twice that number in the pipeline. 然而, about 3,200 units will actually be added to the market this year. Remember that it takes over two years to build a complex, and not all that are planned ever get built.  Occupancy levels are remaining strong at 92.6%, down just a little bit, possibly due to college graduations and summer moves.

Austin’s Market Grows Stronger Still

Austin is the #6 strongest apartment city in the U.S. according to Wealth Management Real Estate, with new construction at 5% of the current total of units, where 1% to 2% would be a “normal” number.  It is considered that adding 1% of the current amount of commercial space, 是办公室吗, 零售, 工业或公寓, 是健康的增长.  当它上升到2%以上时, there better be a lot of job and population growth to soak it up, and we all know that Austin has that in spades.

Austin’s supply growth actually leads the U.S. this year, but 然后 there is little 这是 normal about “Planet Austin.”  San Antonio now has a 1.库存扩张5%, which is actually one of the lowest in the southern region of the country, where job growth is the strongest. Our average annual construction expansion is 2.7%.  换句话说:在阿拉莫市，我们没有建造足够的公寓，所以空置率会下降，租金会继续上涨. 然而,, while San Antonio has the largest construction pipeline in our history, we are still the smallest of the four major Texas markets. For example, we have about 14,000 in the pipeline, while Austin has 31,000.

Looking back at the national multifamily construction rate over the past 16 years, since the Great Recession, there has been a slow but steady rebound. 来自人口普查局, 2011年，全国多户住宅的竣工量仅为12.9万套，创下30年来的最低水平，但之后的平均竣工量为244套,000 per year from 2012 to 2019. Then, in 2020 we reached 364.7k和363.2021年7k.  But 2022 will see a record 426,000 apartment units constructed.

Single Family Housing Shortage

The Single Family Housing Shortage is nearing, in contrast to apartments.  北风, a widely respected housing analyst, says that the rising demand for single family homes outstrips the current supply.  全国各地的住房需求都在膨胀，但在许多阳光地带的城市尤为严重.  “In 2021 demand was twice as high as supply and this mismatch has resulted in a 5.从2020年第四季度到2021年第四季度，(租赁)更新率增长了6%，全国空置单位数量降至100万以下.” While home building is falling into recession, we are still under-building for the long term market needs, especially in the lower end affordable area.

北风的执行董事Kimberly Byrum表示:“在过去的9个月里，租金价格飙升.“所有市场的房价都上涨了至少10%，全国房价上涨了19%，根据Byrum的说法，这一趋势将继续下去。. 这是由于以下因素共同造成的:1)空置单元的可用性低;2)新住房的供应有限;3)历史上最高的更新率(2022年第一季度为58%)，导致未来一段时间内住房短缺.

Green Street在7月份的博客中写道，在经济低迷时期，公寓被认为是最安全的投资, 又称经济衰退, “2022年将是公寓市场最强劲的一年”，收入将增长10%.  “Apartment values declined by 4% last month, but are still up 15% over the past year, and 16% relative to pre-Covid levels.然而，公寓交易仍然从2021年5月的100亿美元下降到2022年5月的90亿美元.

公寓投资者

Now, Apartment investors are starting to focus more on newer properties.  Wealth Management Real Estate Magazine reports that, “With a shrinking delta in cap rates between assets of different vintage, many investors opt to go with lower risk, newer properties with fewer capital expenditures.“在过去的十年里, older properties generally increased in value, with a drop in capitalization rates from 6.2降到4.3.  While, according to CoStar Advisory 服务, newer assets compressed from 5.从3%降到3%.8%.   So, the dramatic increase in value for older properties, 也许结束了, 因此，现在是在市场顶部或接近顶部时出售旧房产的好时机，然后等待未来更好的时机购买.

新建筑定义

How do apartments get rated A, B and C? 新建筑, by definition, is A类.  建造B级公寓是不可能的，因为所有新建公寓的成本都差不多. This encompasses the land costs, 木材, 钢, 铜线, and 混凝土 portions of buildings; all are about the same no matter how fancy your new project proposes to be. If you thought about building a “cheap” property, it wouldn’t be that much less costly as a typical A类 property, 但你无法租到它，因为挑剔的租客不想住在便宜的新公寓里.  实际上, the break down is A类, A -然后, A类 plus for units that are high rise and very luxurious.

A类

一般, apartments built in the past 15 years, 这是, since the so-called Great Recession, 被认为是A类, having better amenities and design, so that upgrading them is perhaps less expensive, so they may appeal more to investors.  属性 built from 2007 back to the early 1990’s are considered Class B, 如果他们一直保持很少的延期维护和固有的较低的租金和较高的成本维护和改造.   C类属性, 然后, were built in the 1980’s before the Savings and Loan Crisis, also known as the RTC times.

These older properties have now been bid up to the level close enough to newer ones, 与保持单位充分占用所需的更昂贵的持续维护相比，这种好处是有限的.  There are now enough properties built in the past 15 years that need cosmetic upgrades, so they may apparently represent a greater long-term value for investors.

风险投资

Older units are now seen as riskier assets, 维护成本更高, 更高的保险费用, 租金的上涨空间更小. So Class B apartments are just old, and Class C are older still.  这些类型的房产通常由投资者购买，他们会对其进行改造和升级，配备新的内部装饰, 地板, 固定装置, 屋顶和园林绿化, seeking to create added value in excess of the costs of upgrades.  然后，买家会把租金提高到比改造前高得多的水平.  然而, 与A类物业相比，它们的租金仍然较低，对收入较低的租户也有吸引力.  In this way there is something for everyone!

据CoStar报道, these older A类-minus properties with a few years under their belt, account for a larger portion of the acquisitions.  In 2018 the newer properties were 22 % of the market but 32% in 2021.  然而, 较旧物业的成交数目仍占市场约11%, 以及, 美元的体积.

投资者的市场

San Antonio has traditionally been a local investor market, with little interest from large institutions, however in recent years well-capitalized national buyers are outbidding locals, with an increase in average sale price of 40% in that past five years to $120,800, according to Marcus and Millichap.  北区的资本化率低至4%，尤其是医疗中心.

An example is the Remington Ranch Apartments in San Antonio, which was bought by a California investment company.  Built in 2008 with only little more than cosmetic repairs in the past 15 years, the new owner will invest $2.8-million in interior and exterior upgrades. The apartment investor said, “We thought: if we’re going to be paying these prices, we might as well look for newer, nicer properties so if the economy turns, we can hold for the next 10 years and not have to spend money on deferred maintenance.”

新建筑’s affect on Rents

New construction is putting some downward pressure on the rent spiral. Guadalupe County has a 12.8% growth, but CBD is down to a still respectable 5.增长率6%. Consider that CBD apart development added 175% to the CBD inventory since 2010, “市中心十年万岁”.“从波特兰科(Potranco)到匡威(Converse)的大北弧(Great Northern Arc of Loop 1604)已经有了实质性的新发展, averaging rent growth of 10-12%.  New Braunfels/Comal County is not far behind at 9.5%.  瓜达卢佩县，包括谢尔茨和奇博洛，以及县城塞根，增加了9人.4% to its apartment unit inventory in the past year.  把这个和4比较.3% in New Braunfels and 1.圣安东尼奥8%, albeit SA’s base is far larger so moving the needle that much requires many more units.  尽管库存增加，瓜达卢佩县7月份的空置率仍低至4%, 和12.租金增长8%!

Apartment Rents and Apartment Construction in San Antonio

To pull all of this together公寓租金曾大幅上涨，但现在正在放缓至更正常的增长速度，单户家庭租金也在放缓.  Apartment construction in San Antonio is very strong, 然而，随着这座城市继续以健康的速度增长，它似乎正在跟上需求的步伐. 更重要的是，随着房屋建设放缓，我们可能仍会继续低估市场需求.  整体, apartments make a good investment sector, but it is only for experienced and well-capitalized players.